from the April 25, 2005 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0425/p13s01-wmgn.html
Wanna buy this house? Send your résumé.
By Evan Pondel | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor
LOS ANGELES - A headshot and bio is standard protocol to get an
audition for a TV show or a play. But are they really necessary to buy
a house?
They are in some neighborhoods of Los Angeles where, in addition
to offering as much as $75,000 over the asking price, buyers are
sending flowery bios, pictures, and letters to sellers. "I just
oohed and ahhed my way from room to room," read one letter to Jane
Centofante, who was selling her 2,000 square-foot home in Westwood, a
tony L.A. suburb, for a cool $1.49 million. "I gather from your [house]
that you are warm and smart and bring incredibly beautiful detail to
your world," read another. Ms. Centofante was stuck - deciding between
the family who included a photo with their dog and the young
screenwriter who wrote a flattering two-page letter - when other events
put the sale on hold. Welcome to America's frothy real estate
market, where in some places enthusiasm and excess have reached a point
that, to many, seems eerily similar to the dotcom craze of the late
1990s. Of course, housing prices don't rise and fall like stock
prices. They move more slowly and because of different dynamics. Still,
it's hard to imagine the intensity of today's market continuing
indefinitely, experts say. "There is a conceptual limit that we
have gone beyond," says Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and
finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "And we are
more vulnerable to price volatility. But complicating the issue is that
there is no simple measure of a bubble." Instead, there are anecdotes that would have seemed unbelievable 10 years ago. For example: •
Bidding wars in California are forcing real estate agents to write
recommendations on behalf of their clients who are attempting to buy a
new home. • Real estate trade groups in Massachusetts are calling
on state officials to approve more housing construction to improve
prospects for buyers. • Retirees moving to Florida are living in
hotels for weeks and even months at a time as they scour the state in
search of affordable places to live. Most baffling to economists,
and even those who reject the notion of a bubble, is that the supply of
homes for sale continues to dwindle in places like Florida, southern
California, and Massachusetts. Thus, there is no clear sign that the
real estate market has peaked. All of these places experienced
double-digit increases in home prices throughout 2004, some repeating
their cloud-piercing performance for the third consecutive year. Big gain in one yearIn
February, the median price of a home in Florida rose 25 percent to
$201,400 when compared with the same month a year ago. The West Palm
Beach-Boca Raton area of the state continues to register the biggest
leaps in home prices, climbing as high as 34 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2004. Multiple bids keep coming through, says Marilyn
Jacobs, who sells homes in Boca. And more often than not, her sellers
are rejecting a lot of people. "They've had to kiss a lot of
frogs before they find their prince," says Ms. Jacobson, a native New
Yorker. "But those other frogs will find their palaces, too. There are
still plenty of opportunities." Not so in Massachusetts. The
state has seen a precipitous drop in housing construction, keeping
demand taut and prices aloft. The conditions have worsened in three
years, evoking a theme akin to the late 1980s. At that time,
housing prices throughout Massachusetts were appreciating rapidly and
they didn't correlate with the annual rent a house could command - a
relationship economists scrutinize to detect a bubble. The result: a
real estate recession that knocked prices down and drove investors away
from the housing market. Despite the evidence, "I don't believe
there is a bubble right now,'' says Maggie Tomkiewicz, president of the
Massachusetts Association of Realtors, who argues that today's
supply-and-demand conditions don't contribute to a real estate bubble.
Interest rates were also trending downward in the late 1980s. Effect of interest ratesBut
economists today are forecasting that interest rates will rise, a
notable characteristic of a cooling trend for the real estate market.
The danger is that until interest rates rise, home buyers will continue
to snap up real estate they can't even afford. Zero percent down and
100 percent financing are influencing many homeowners to live beyond
their means. "It's like you have all of these people driving
around in fancy cars and drinking expensive wine because they feel
rich,'' says Christopher Thornberg, a senior economist with the
University of California at Los Angeles Anderson Forecast. "The problem
is there is all of this money floating around and something has to
break.'' Mr. Thornberg's prognosis: "The whole US is in a bubble right now. And it could go on for another year.'' Or
burst in the next six months, according to Harvey Dent Jr., author of
"The Next Great Bubble Boom." He bases his prediction on a recent
estimate from the National Association of Realtors that 23 percent of
last year's home sales were second homes purchased by investors. That
made sense when real estate proved a better investment than poor
performing stocks. But as interest rates rise, Mr. Dent says, they will
push investors out of real estate and back into stocks or bonds.
"That's why I'm renting an apartment in Miami Beach," Dent says. "I
don't want to get stuck owning some overvalued piece of property." Delay in the dealUnfortunately,
Jane Centofante has yet to sell her home in Los Angeles. An inspector
found traces of creosote - a mixture of potentially toxic chemicals -
throughout her home. Since the finding, she has lost four potential
buyers during escrow, that critical period of time when a buyer and
seller work out the money and other requests when transferring
ownership of a home. "I'm ready to sell. And I want to sell. But
now I can't," says Centofante, who hopes to have the creosote problem
remedied before the market sours.
Full HTML version of this story which may include photos, graphics, and related links
|